Bitcoin recently faced strong selling pressure around the $111K level, leading to a clear bearish rejection. Despite this, the cryptocurrency is currently lacking enough bullish momentum, suggesting that a deeper correction could be on the horizon in the mid-term.
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Overview
After breaking above its previous all-time high near $109K and reaching a new peak at $111K, Bitcoin encountered significant resistance, triggering notable selling pressure. The inability to maintain gains above this key psychological barrier caused BTC to retreat below $109K. This pullback coincided with the sweep of buy-side liquidity above the previous swing high, enabling smart money to execute sell orders effectively.
As a result, the market entered a corrective phase and is now approaching the daily fair value gap (FVG) between $97K and $100K — a zone that likely contains strong demand and could act as a support level. If Bitcoin stabilizes within this area, a bounce back toward $111K resistance is probable. Conversely, failure to hold this support might lead to further declines toward the $95K region.
4-Hour Chart Insights
On the 4-hour timeframe, intensified selling at $111K caused BTC to break down from its ascending price channel. The subsequent retest near $108K confirmed the bearish breakout, indicating weakening momentum. Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating between $100K and $108K, a critical support-resistance range. A decisive breakout above $108K or breakdown below $100K will likely determine the next major price movement—either a bullish recovery or an extended correction.
On-Chain Analysis
The Realized Price of mid-term holders, reflecting the average acquisition cost of coins held for 3–6 months, has historically acted as a key support or resistance level. Bitcoin remains above this metric for mid-term holders, signaling they are still in profit and relatively stress-free.
However, recent selling pressure has pushed the price closer to this range, which currently sits around $98K. This makes the $98K–$100K zone a critical support area to watch. A solid bounce here would demonstrate ongoing confidence from mid-term investors and could set the stage for a fresh rally toward new all-time highs. If this support fails, the market may experience a deeper correction.
