Bitcoin Is Flying Off Exchanges, So Why Isn’t the Price Rising?
Bitcoin balances on exchanges have just hit their lowest point in five years, according to a report by BTC financial services firm Swan on May 1. Despite the massive outflow, with 15,000 BTC recently added by Strategy and institutional players like ETFs stacking their positions, Bitcoin’s price has remained stagnant, facing resistance at the $95,000 mark and consolidating around that level for the past week.
The Bitcoin Supply Shift: A Bullish Indicator, But Not an Immediate Price Surge
Swan analysts point out that while some of the Bitcoin leaving exchanges is headed to cold storage—a clear signal of long-term conviction—a large portion is flowing into institutional custody. This includes ETFs, fund administrators, and trading infrastructure, suggesting that the coins aren’t disappearing from the market but simply moving to larger players.
However, not all of this Bitcoin is being held passively. Much of it is either active in yield platforms, structured products, or used as collateral. As a result, prices aren’t rising immediately.
“Bitcoin is still a market, and in markets, sellers never disappear,” Swan’s analysts noted. Some of the Bitcoin is being sold by traders seeking short-term gains, others by long-term holders taking profits, while some speculators who may not fully understand Bitcoin’s value are also moving coins.
Strategy’s Accumulation and Supply Compression
Swan also observed that Strategy has been acquiring Bitcoin at an aggressive pace, surpassing monthly miner production of around 13,500 BTC. They referred to this as a “synthetic halving” of Bitcoin’s supply, which is contributing to the tightening of available coins on the market.
Even though supply is shrinking, analysts concluded that price movements are driven by demand. With an increasing influx of fiat money seeking a scarce asset, Bitcoin’s next price move is expected to be violent and possibly irreversible.
Bitcoin’s Price Outlook: Testing Key Resistance Levels
Bitcoin recently dipped below $93,400 but quickly recovered to $94,800 during early Thursday trading. While the asset remains range-bound between $93,000 and $95,000, it has posted strong gains over the past month, recovering from a dip to $75,000 in early April.
On-chain and technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin is testing key resistance at $93K–$95K and breaking out of its downtrend, forming higher highs in the process. Analysts are watching closely for any signs that the market is at a turning point.
