Bitcoin’s recent rally has demonstrated a shift in market dynamics, with spot market traders taking the lead while derivatives activity remains subdued. This trend has helped maintain Bitcoin’s stability, suggesting the current price action may be more grounded in real demand than speculative leverage.
Spot Market Drives Bitcoin’s Momentum
According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, the surge in Bitcoin (BTC) from $75,000 to over $104,000 has been heavily fueled by aggressive buying activity in the spot market. Since mid-April, net spot inflows across major trading platforms have shown a steady increase, as reflected in the Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD)—a key metric that tracks the net difference between aggressive buy and sell orders.
Bitfinex analysts noted that CVD peaked at over $45 million per day across major centralized exchanges, aligning with Bitcoin’s breakout moves. This strong spot-led momentum highlights that real capital inflows—not leveraged speculation—are powering the rally.
Even as BTC enters a consolidation phase, analysts argue that continued dominance of spot market inflows is essential for breaking through resistance levels near its all-time high.
Derivatives Lag Behind as Market Resets
Meanwhile, the derivatives market has lagged, showing signs of caution and forced repositioning. The positive Spot Premium—measuring the price gap between spot and derivatives markets—has been in place since BTC crossed the $80,000 mark, indicating that the spot market continues to lead price discovery.
Open interest in perpetual futures has been declining, pointing to a wave of short liquidations and de-leveraging. Traders betting against Bitcoin’s rise have been caught off guard, contributing to back-to-back squeezes that have reset excessive leverage and paved the way for a healthier market structure.
Bitfinex analysts describe this phase as part of a “maturing bull market,” where speculative froth is cleared out and replaced with more structural, long-term buying.
A Constructive Phase for Bitcoin
This alignment of sustained spot inflows and a cleaned-up derivatives landscape supports a more stable and sustainable rally. The shift away from over-leveraged speculation toward genuine demand suggests that Bitcoin’s stability holds as the spot market leads inflows over derivatives—a hallmark of a healthy mid-cycle bull trend.
