Altcoin Unlock Event: $40B at Stake, Locked Holders Face Major 50% Losses – STIX
According to data shared by STIX founder Taran Sabharwal, holders of locked tokens have suffered substantial losses over the past year — and a looming $40 billion altcoin unlock event may worsen the situation.
Between May 2024 and April 2025, investors who participated in over-the-counter (OTC) deals for unreleased tokens saw their holdings fall by an average of 50% compared to current spot prices.
Locked Tokens See Steeper Declines Than the Market
Sabharwal’s analysis reveals that early investors in locked altcoins missed the chance to exit at significantly higher valuations in 2024. These deals, typically made with long-term expectations, have underperformed due to shifting market conditions and project-specific downturns.
Among the hardest-hit projects were Scroll (SCR) and Blast (BLAST), which declined by 85% and 88% respectively. Eigenlayer (EIGEN) followed with a 75% loss. Other tokens like ZKsync (ZK), Wormhole (W), and io.net (IO) also saw major declines of -64%, -50%, and -48%. The only standout was Jito, which gained 75% during the same timeframe.
On average, locked token investors endured greater losses than the broader crypto market, which fell by 40.7% according to data from Artemis — nearly 20% less than the average drop in locked tokens.
Opportunity Cost Adds to Investor Pain
When factoring in opportunity cost versus Bitcoin (BTC), which rose 45% over the year, the picture worsens. STIX data shows locked token holders effectively lost another 31% by not holding BTC. This means that $1 held in locked altcoins is now worth just $0.25 when accounting for both price depreciation and current OTC discounts.
With over $40 billion in altcoins due to unlock in the coming months, the pressure on prices is expected to intensify. These new releases are entering the market at steep discounts — currently averaging 50% — compounding potential losses for sellers.
Shorter Vesting Periods Provide Limited Relief
Sabharwal noted that as many tokens approach the end of their cliff periods in 2025, OTC discounts have slightly narrowed due to reduced vesting durations. However, the fundamental risk of price volatility during lock-ups remains a major concern.
Locked tokens typically carry vesting schedules that prevent early liquidation, exposing holders to adverse market movements without the flexibility to react.
