Bitcoin (BTC) could be gearing up for a historic bull run, with Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, predicting a surge to $200,000. In his latest macroeconomic analysis titled “Ski Cut,” Hayes highlights a powerful but under-the-radar trigger: U.S. Treasury bond buybacks.
🚨 The Hidden Catalyst: Treasury Buybacks
According to Hayes, a planned wave of Treasury buybacks—where the government issues new debt to repurchase older, less liquid bonds—could inject significant dollar liquidity into the financial system. This surge in liquidity, he argues, will be a major tailwind for Bitcoin, potentially pushing its price past $110,000 and ultimately toward his $200K Bitcoin forecast.
📉 Market Backdrop: Tariffs, Fed Uncertainty, and Liquidity Plays
Hayes’ prediction comes amid global economic volatility, including renewed tariff threats from Donald Trump and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s tightening policy. But he believes these headlines are just noise compared to what the Treasury is quietly doing behind the scenes.
While not direct money printing, bond buybacks ease volatility in debt markets, allowing leveraged hedge funds to continue pouring money into Treasuries—and, by extension, risk assets like Bitcoin.
He compares this to late 2022, when then-Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen tapped into the Fed’s Reverse Repo Program (RRP) to flood markets with liquidity—right before BTC went on a sixfold rally.
🔑 What Needs to Happen for $200K Bitcoin
Hayes outlines two critical conditions for his $200K BTC price prediction to become reality:
- Ongoing Treasury bond buybacks — especially if the U.S. deficit widens, which could trigger more aggressive debt repurchase strategies.
- Federal Reserve cooperation — Hayes believes the Fed might covertly support market liquidity through slower quantitative tightening (QT) or tweaks to bank reserve requirements.
💡 Bitcoin: The Digital Hedge Against Fiat Devaluation
For Hayes, Bitcoin stands as the ultimate hedge in this scenario—especially as the global financial community braces for increasing currency debasement and geopolitical risk.
“Bitcoin will continue to lead the way as it is the direct beneficiary of more fiat dollars sloshing about,” Hayes stated. “With Trump’s aggressive tariff rhetoric, investors are fleeing traditional assets. Gold is the physical hedge. Bitcoin is the digital one.”
📊 Market Already Reacting
The market seems to be taking the hint. Bitcoin recently surged past $90,000 for the first time in over six weeks. At the time of writing, BTC is trading near $93,531, marking a 5.8% daily gain and 11.8% increase over the past week, outpacing the broader crypto market’s 10.2% rise.
